Ngā Wāhi Wera o Ngā Whakawhitinga Hiko Waenga me te Ngaohiko Teitei o te Ao (2025-2026)

1. Whakapai ake i ngā Paerewa Whai Hua Pūngao me te Huringa Kakariki: Te Urutau Pūngao Hou hei Kaupapa Matua​

I te ao whānui, ko ngā whakaritenga mō te whai huatanga o te pūngao o ngā reo me ngā Whakawhiti Ngaohiko TeiteiKei te tere haere ngā mahi, ā, ko te kore o ngā paerewa whai hua o te pūngao i te taha whakaputa pūngao hou kua noho hei take nui mō ngā tau tata nei. I te marama o Āperira 2024, i tukuna e Haina te putanga hou o Ngā Uara Whakaaetia mō te Whai Hua o te Pūngao me ngā Tohu Whai Hua o te Pūngao mō ngā Whakawhiti Hiko (GB20052-2024), i whakatinanahia mana i te marama o Pēpuere 2025. Mō te wā tuatahi, ka whakauruhia e tēnei paerewa ngā whakawhiti hiko 6kV-66kV mō te whakaputa pūngao hou (photovoltaic, mana hau, rokiroki pūngao) ki roto i ngā ture whai hua o te pūngao, e kapi ana i ngā āhuatanga ngaohiko matua mō te hononga whatunga pūngao hou (hei tauira, ko ngā whakawhiti hiko 35kV kua rumakina ki te hinu/momo maroke neke atu i te 95% o ngā tono i roto i te rāngai pūngao hou).

Ko te whāinga matua o te whakahoutanga paerewa ko te whakaiti i ngā ngaronga tuku mai i te pūngao hou. Hei tauira, mā te tango i ngā whakawhiti hiko taha-whakaputa 35kV kua rumakina ki te hinu, kua heke te ngaronga kore-kawenga o te whai huatanga pūngao Tau 3 i raro i te paerewa hou mā te 30% ki te whakataurite ki te putanga tawhito (GB6451-2015), ā, kua heke te whai huatanga pūngao Tau 1 mā te 10% anō; kua heke te ngaronga kore-kawenga o ngā whakawhiti hiko momo-maroke 35kV (Tau 3) mā te 20% ki te whakataurite ki te paerewa ahumahi (NB/T31062-2014). E ai ki ngā whakatau tata, mēnā ka whakahoutia ngā whakawhiti hiko hou katoa i Haina mai i te taumata S11 ki te taumata S20, ka taea te whakaiti i ngā tukunga waro mā te 55 miriona tana, he rite ki te 2.8 ngā wā o te whakaputanga hiko o te Teihana Hiko Wai o Gezhouba i te tau 2021.

Ehara i te mea ko tēnei whakatinanatanga paerewa anake te whakatairanga i te panonitanga o te umanga whakawhiti hiko o Haina ki te whai huatanga teitei me te waro iti, engari e whakarato ana hoki i tētahi anga tohutoro whai huatanga pūngao nui mō te hononga whatunga pūngao hou o te ao.

1. Te Whatunga Atamai me te AI e Arohia ana e te Tono: Ko ngā Whakawhiti Āhua-Toka (SST) te Matua o te Reanga Panuku

I te pahūtanga o te mana rorohiko AI (hei tauira, ko te whakangungu i ngā tauira nui ChatGPT ka pau te hiko i roto i ngā rā e toru, rite tonu ki te nui o te hiko e pau ana i ngā waka Tesla 3,000 e taraiwa ana i te 320,000 kiromita) me te tere o te hanganga whatunga atamai, kāore e taea e ngā whakawhiti hiko tuku iho te whakatutuki i ngā hiahia o te kiato mana teitei me te whakahaere hihiri. Ko ngā whakawhiti hiko totoka (SST), me ō rātou painga o te rahi iti, te pai o te mahi, me te tautoko i te rere hiko e rua ngā taha, kua noho hei arotahi hou o te rangahau hangarau me te aro o te mākete.

Ka whakamahia e ngā SST te hangarau whakawhiti hiko mana auau-teitei. Ki te whakatauritea ki ngā whakawhiti auau-ahumahi tuku iho, ka whakaitihia e rātou te rōrahi mā te 50%-80% me te taumaha mā te 60%-80%, ā, ka taea te whakatutuki i te whakahaere ngaohiko hihiri taumata-mirihēkona me te putanga ngaohiko pumau, e tino pai ai mō ngā horopaki pēnei i ngā pokapū raraunga AI, te hononga whatunga hiko hou, me ngā teihana utu tere rawa. Hei tauira, kei roto i te pepa ma hou a NVIDIA ngā SST hei otinga pai mō te tuku tika ngaohiko-waenga i roto i ngā pokapū raraunga, ā, kua oti i ngā kamupene pēnei i a Jinpan Technology te whakawhanake i te tauira SST me te tuku tauira ki NVIDIA.

Ahakoa kei te wāhanga tauira/manatoko iti tonu ngā SST (e matapaetia ana ka hokohokohia i runga i te tauine nui mai i te tau 2028 ki te 2030), he teitei ngā tumanakohanga a te mākete—e tohu ana te pūrongo rangahau a Guangda Securities e matapaetia ana ka noho ngā SST hei putanga nui i roto i ngā arai hiko e akiakihia ana e ngā wira rua o "AI + pūngao hou," me te tipu haere o te rahi o te mākete mai i te 6 piriona yuan i te tau 2024 ki te 26.4 piriona yuan i te tau 2027 (CAGR tata ki te 64%).

1. Te Kore o te Tuku Ao me ngā Painga Hainamana: Ko te Mana Whakahaere Motuhake o te Mekameka Ahumahi Katoa ka noho hei Whakataetae Matua

I te ao whānui, kei te raru nui ngā taputapu whakawhiti hiko waenga me te teitei i te korenga o ngā taputapu hiko: kua piki ake te āputaputa mō ngā taputapu whakawhiti hiko i te Hononga o Amerika mā te 116% i whakaritea ki te tau 2019, kei te puhoi te haere o ngā whakahoutanga whatunga hiko o Ūropi nā te korenga o ngā taputapu whakawhiti hiko, ā, kei te noho mangere ngā kaupapa nui o te rā i Īnia i te tatari mō ngā taputapu whakawhiti hiko. I runga i tēnei āhuatanga, ko Haina, me te 60% o te kaha whakaputa o te ao, kua riro hei whenua whai hua nui rawa atu.

Ko ngā painga matua o Haina i roto i ngā whakawhiti hiko kei roto i te mana whakahaere motuhake o te mekameka ahumahi katoa:

Ngā Rauemi Matua: I eke te hanga o te maitai silicon (te rauemi "ngakau" o ngā whakawhiti hiko) ki te 3.0325 miriona tana (2024), e rima ngā wā i nui ake ai i a Hapani, e waru ngā wā i nui ake ai i a Te Hononga o Amerika. Nā Baosteel Group i hanga te raina hanga pepa maitai silicon tino angiangi 0.18mm anake o te ao, me te mahi tino pai rawa atu i te ao;

Hangarau me te Pūmanawa: Kua whakauruhia e te China Electrical Equipment Group ngā umanga pēnei i a XD, Baobian, me Shandong Electrical Engineering hei hanga i tētahi whānuitanga o ngā pūmanawa "UHV + pūngao hou". Ko ngā umanga tūmataiti pēnei i a Xinjiang Tebian me Jiangsu Huapeng te kaiārahi o te ao i roto i ngā kaweake i ngā taputapu whakawhiti pūngao hou;

Te Whai Hua o te Tukunga: He poto ake te huringa tuku o ngā whakawhiti hiko o Haina (hei tauira, 10 marama mō ngā whakawhiti hiko UHV nui) i tō Ūropi me te Hononga o Amerika (neke atu i te 18 marama), ā, he iti ake ngā utu (he haurua te utu o ngā hua o te whakatakotoranga kotahi i ō Ūropi me Amerika).

Mai i Hānuere ki Ākuhata 2025, i eke te uara kaweake o ngā taputapu whakawhiti hiko o Haina ki te 29.711 piriona yuan, he pikinga tau-ki-te-tau o te 36.3%, ā, kua piki ake te mākete Pākehā mā te 138%. Kei te hiahia ētahi kiritaki ki te utu i te 20% hei whakarite i te tuku.

1. Ngā Ahumahi Hangarau Hou me te Whakapai Ahumahi: UHV me te Mana Hau Moana hei Kaupapa Matua​

Nō nā tata nei, kua tutuki i ngā umanga Hainamana ngā whanaketanga hangarau nui i roto i te UHV me te mana hau moana me ētahi atu mara whakawhiti hiko reo me te ngaohiko teitei, e whakatairanga ana i te whakapai ake i ngā ahumahi:

Ngā Whakawhiti UHV: Ko te whakawhiti hiko UHV DC ±800kV a te Kamupene Shenbian i whakamahia ki te kaupapa UHV Jinshang-Hubei ka whakapai ake i ngā taumata whakamarumaru taha-whatunga mā te 5%; mā te whakawhiti hiko whakaputa hiko UHV 1000kV a Xidian Xibian ka whakarite kia whakahaerehia i te wā tika ngā kaupapa hiko waro miriona-kirowati;

Ngā Whakawhiti Mana Hau o Tāwāhi: I whakarewahia e te Kamupene Shenbian te whakawhiti nacelle mana hau o tāwāhi 20Hz tuatahi o te ao, he mea whakarerekē ki ngā whatunga auau-iti ngāwari, me te whakaiti i ngā mate tuku mā te 15%-20%, ā, i whakamahia ki te pāmu hau o tāwāhi Huaene Yuhuan Wāhanga II;

Ngā Whakawhiti Atamai: I whakawhanakehia e te Kamupene Taputapu Hangarau Hiko a Shandong tētahi whakawhiti hiko iti e toru ngā takai 220kV, e whakaiti ana i te whakamahinga maitai mā te arotau i te hanganga (hei tauira, te hanganga whakakaha pereti tāke) me te whakapai ake i te pai o te huihuinga mā te 35%, me ngā taumata pai o te pūngao e eke ana i ngā paerewa ā-motu.

1. Te Ōhanga Porowhita me te Hanga Anō: He Ara Hou mō te Huringa Kakariki​

I te whanaketanga o te rautaki "waro rua", kua noho te hanga-anō o ngā whakawhiti hei wāhi hou i roto i te umanga. Ka whakamahia e te TBEA (Hunan) Energy Construction Co., Ltd. te whakaurunga "io mamati" (ngā maramara pūoko atamai) me te "whakahoutanga okana" (te whakahou i te whakamahana koiri, te whakamahana i te dialysis hohonu hinu) hei huri i ngā whakawhiti 220kV kua whakakorehia hei taputapu he pai ake te whai hua o te pūngao i ngā paerewa ā-motu o te Reanga 1. Ko te utu he 60% noa iho o ngā hua hou, ā, ka taea e te waeine kotahi kua hangaia anō te penapena i te 70% o ngā utu hoko me te whakahoki mai i te wā hanga nui.

Ehara i te mea ka whakaitihia e tēnei tauira te utu mō ngā whakapai ake i te whatunga hiko anake, engari ka whakaitihia hoki te para rauemi—e ai ki ngā whakatau tata, ko te whakaiti i ngā tukunga waro mai i tētahi pokapū hanga anō he rite ki te whakato i ngā mano eka o ngā ngahere, e hangai ana ki te ahunga whanaketanga o tētahi "ōhanga porowhita".